Tuesday 24 August 2010

Who will win the Premier League?

Now the new 2010/11 Season is underway, I thought I would assess the would be contenders and where I think they will finish come the end of their campaign. Eagle eyed readers may notice I have arrived pretty late to the Speculators Party, however it is always beneficial to see how the respective teams kick off their fixture lists and, as is always the case, no winner can be truly declared this side of Christmas.


Manchester United - 4th.

Despite ruling the modern game by lifting 11 Premier League titles, amongst other trophies including the FA Cup, Champions League, League Cup and Charity Shields, Man Utd have begun to show a fragility which I feel will become a major problem in coming seasons. Being an Arsenal fan, I cannot compare the two in terms of trophy haul, however even the most die-hard United fan must be a little worried over the current financial state of their club. Whereas most clubs consider the financials as a footnote to their respective seasons, sooner or later the liquidity of the business comes to the fore and can cause terminal problems in their ability to compete for the riches of English football.

Recent reports from the City outline the potential for the £128m Bank loans interest in Man Utd to increase to a staggering £660m due to the maturity of a PIK instrument. To those unfamiliar with financial terms, it basically means the Glaziers have not been paying interest in these loans and instead wait until the loan has finished then pay back capital plus interest which has rolled up over the term of the facility. Couple this with the c£800m of debt used to purchase the club you have a staggering sum close to £1bn of debt requiring payment. While I do not profess to be a financial expert in terms of football finance, the high-level view of the Clubs indebtedness is far to big to sustain a transfer war-chest to compete with Chelsea or, more recently, Man City.

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Moreover the recent failure to mount a serious bid by the Red Knights this year to buy out the club suggest this group of City financiers saw a lot more than they bargained for after 5 years under Malcolm Glaziers hand.

How long can this last? My guess is that Man Utd will continue to mount a strong challenge. That said, with a front line reliant on Wayne Rooney and a defense on Vidic and Ferdinand it seems this squad, when missing first team regulars, may struggle in the latter stages of the Premier League and Champions League. After Ronaldo and Tevez's departure, Man Utd look light up front and may find with injuries, their ability to rake in points is diminished, I reference the previous 2-2 draw with Fulham to highlight their lack of strength. However, despite this, Ferguson has made signings this summer, including; Chris Smalling and Javier Hernandez - already impressing this season, while the elder members of the squad, Giggs and Scholes, have continued to defy their age with strong performances.

Therefore, with an aging squad and tightening purse strings, I feel Ferguson will be unable to guide his team no higher than 4th, as I feel my next contenders will be too strong and have more consistent seasons for the Red Devils to cope with.


Manchester City - 3rd.

A slightly uninspiring choice, Man City seem to be building a strong squad of internationals, albeit with the vast oil-rich Arab owners petty cash. I have never been a supporter to Sugar-Daddy backed success, as it paints an artificial gloss on a Clubs Season should they haul in the trophies.

While Roberto Mancini will always be working with an axe hanging above his head, metaphorically I hope, he has assembled a squad with plenty of talent in each position. Much like Chelsea under Mourinho, each area of the pitch is covered by at least two talented players. To name a few, any squad which boasts; Yaya Toure, Carlos Tevez, Nigel de Jong, Joe Hart, Wayne Bridge, Gareth Barry and, recently, James Milner, has a shot at the Premier League and the supporting Cup competitions. How Mancini slakes the desire of these players to have regular starting berths remains to be seen, however I suspect the cash will keep them happy for a while.

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As with Man Utd, the big spending at City will ultimately catch up with them, spending c£125m this summer so far with no sign of slowing down. Any finance expert will tell you that a club must keep wages to turnover ratios around the 70% mark, as deemed acceptable by FIFA, however I would guess without looking at the financial accounts that City are well in excess of this already, a case in point is Yaya Toure's moronic £200k per week contract.

Despite this, flashing cash is a hit or miss strategy unless you have a quality Manager in charge with the confidence of the Board. Chelsea managed it as Mourinho, while no shrinking violet, was indeed a successful Manager. Mancini won 140 of 227 games in charge at Internazionale, lifting the Serie A title 3 times, the Coppa Italia twice and the Supercoppa Italiana in 2006 so he does have some managerial pedigree. In addition, Massimo Moratti's generosity with the clubs coffers has enabled Mancini to buy big and achieve big results. Therefore, now Mancini has jumped to an equally spend happy club, circumstances suggest he will repeat this feat.

As a non-believer in purchasing success and a team yet to gel, I believe the blue half of Manchester will decimate the lesser lights of the Premier League and secure 3rd place, at least this season.


Chelsea - 2nd.

Despite being a power house in recent years, I believe Chelsea are heading more towards a crossroads in terms of the squad and their ability to challenge for the Premier League crown. Chelsea have won 3 Premiership Titles, 3 FA Cups and 2 League Cups between 2004-2010, which means the club have had a very successful 6 years, which is more than can be said for Arsenal. In addition, with the likes of Joe Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti (I will ignore "Big" Phil Scolari and Gus Hiddinks contribution) establishing strong squads who beat all before them, it may sound strange that I tip Chelsea for 2nd this year.

However, there are two key issues which will ultimately catch up with the Blues of West London; Squad age and Transfer Budgets.

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As discussed, ploughing millions into a squad does (sometimes) ensure short term success. Like Man City, see above, have done, many decent players have been showered with money in the hope that the stellar squads deliver on the pitch. However, this strategy is always a short term one. Jose Mourinho cannot say he is the "Special One" if his haul of trophies have been secured with unnatural sums of money at the expense of youth development (are you reading Mancini?) as any kid who's cheated at Championship Manager knows you have to use the resources you have to succeed which have been naturally generated by the club, not pumped in by a Billionaire owner as this is not sustainable.

Roman Abramovich continues to spend his millions, however there has been a distinct slow-down in recent years as, for example, winning bonuses have been scrapped due to the already high sums earned by his players have dramatically inflated the wage bill already. Additionally, the amount of players coming into the squad has also slowed down since the days of Ranieri and Mourinho. Many Chelsea fans may have the false hope that as and when a player is required, Roman will open the cheque book. However, if the wildly foolish Peter Kenyon is to be believed, Chelsea will be self sufficient in a few years while the FIFA fair play rules will force clubs to spend what they generate. Therefore, the riches will surely be restrianed and the Club will have to rely on business revenue to strengthen the club.

This summer, notable transfers in were both Ramires and Benayoun, while in Summer 2009, Chelsea signed Zhirkov, Sturridge and Nemanja Matic - a drastic turnaround from the ever-revolving door of the Ranieri and Mourinho years. While this is in keeping with the steady transfer policies of most clubs, Chelsea's squad have 6 players of 30 years old to replace at some point, all are regular starters. The likes of Lampard (32), Terry (29), Benayoun (30), Drogba (32) and Anelka (31) are all approaching an age where their performances will drastically begin to lose the spark of yesteryear and wont be as potent as the season continues. I may be being a little harsh and predicting a doomsday for the Chelsea squad, however how will these players cope with younger and faster opposition?

To this regard, I feel that with mounting debt and tightening purse strings (as with Man Utd) and an aging squad, Chelsea may fall a little short this year. After all, a club of Chelsea's ability will be competing on 4 fronts, how long is this sustainable with a first team of "senior" players with no realistic sight of immediate replacement


Arsenal - 1st.

This may come as no surprise. However, this will be the year Arsene delivers and the previously "developing team" will show their class and pip their West London rivals to the Title. Why am I so confident? A number of reasons.

Many Gooners are sick of hearing that the team is still developing. In my mind, they stopped developing 2 years ago and have been underachieving ever since. With new additions over the previous seasons such as Vermealen, Koscielny, Arshavin and recently, Chamakh, Wenger has otherwise built the team across a group of youngsters such as Gibbs, Denilson, Walcott, Vela, Bendtner, Traore and Alex Song. This points towards a team, such as the Man Utd of the 90's, who learn, lose, win and play together who have also been complimented with developed stars to add experience and steel.

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While the much publicised issues in the central defence and goalkeeper positions has dogged Arsenal, these are being addressed. The attacking options have never been a problem, with Arsenal firing in 83 goals in the Premier League alone. Emerging stars such as Walcott, Gibbs, Wilshere and Vela are finally showing their class and the mercurial Fabregas is the heartbeat of the first team - an unqualified talent, for how long we shall see.

The finance side of the club is also much publicised. Arsenal have the template for the perfect business franchise. Much admired amongst English and European clubs, the Gunners generate c£220m a year and are rapidly paying down the debt on the Emirates, for 2008/2009, c£130m was paid off over a financial year. In addition, while it will remain top secret, Wenger has millions at his disposal and chooses to not spend it, reinforcing his belief in talent and appropriately priced transfers. Finally, Arsenal consistently qualify for the Champions League, worth an extra £50m in revenues which is not only good for the coffers, but makes Arsenal an attractive club to join for a young starlet who wants to play regular football.

The issues this year will be with the fitness of Van Persie, Fabregas and Vermealen - the spine of the team. While Almunia remains as first choice, Arsenal will continue to fall short so the impending arrival of Mark Schwartzer will solve this problem. Finally, the emergence of Walcott, after being saved the embarrassment of this World Cup, and Wilshere (the new Fabregas?) will add style and youthful exuberance to the squad.

Most importantly, Wenger has finally silenced the doubters and put pen to paper on a new deal for a further 4 years. While this wont be a surprise to most, this actually means the club are now wholly unified as a team and business. This is key for a club looking to win competitions as if the players know their manager is to stay, it creates a solid team ethic and spirit. With a gelled team of youngsters desperate to prove their worth and with experienced internationals thrown into the mix, I feel this team will reflect the class of the Man Utd of the 90's and Barcelona of...well now.

Therefore, I believe this is the year Arsenal finally disprove their doubters and secure their first trophy in 5 years, so long as key players remain fit and firing.

Saturday 14 August 2010

The Managers Merry-Go-Round

Now the Premiership Circus has finally rolled into town after a rather entertaining but disappointing (for all those who aren't Spanish) World Cup, plenty of Pundits and experts, otherwise put back into storage, are back to give their two-pence worth over the coming Season. One particular topic is the annual "Race for the Sack" which is basically who the hallowed experts believe will lose their job's first amongst the 20 men given the often demeaning task of leading their club to glory. More often than not, the freshly promoted clubs, such as; Blackpool, Newcastle and West Brom are the favourites to jettison their beleaguered leaders, while other pretenders such as Stoke, Bolton, Sunderland and West Ham make up the typical clubs who get nervous in or around Christmas Time, with the highly volatile Man City thrown in for good measure.

However, why is it that this rather unfortunate supporting act is often made as big a story as the actual games which provide us with so much weekly entertainment? Usually, it can be deduced that it is either the rather schizophrenic Boards of the aforementioned Clubs or the Managers capitulation in the face of high pressure expectations from the Media, Fans and, indeed, their employers. More often than not any club who is bottom at Christmas faces the abyss of Championship football, with only one club; West Brom, ever surviving this fate. Therefore, it is often the case a Manager will lose their job if they are on the end of too many losses so their Club can attempt to survive with a different Manager at the helm. Does this strategy work? Often is exacerbates the poor form of the Club, as who can turn-around the fortunes of an ailing club who are destined for relegation with so few games?

This is the focus of my thoughts today, as it is surprising how shallow the pool of "Managerial Hero's" actually is, and how the same mediocre Managers are given the task of saving a Club from relegation from the Promised Land. So far this summer, Martin O'Neill and Steve Coppell have suddenly resigned as Aston Villa and Bristol City Managers respectively, while Roberto Manchini is never guaranteed to stay on at Man City unless they win the Double. In addition, Roy Hodgson, tempted by the lure of a struggling Liverpool FC has allowed Mark Hughes another chance to prolong Craig Bellamy's career at Fulham. So far, the Premier League seems a little incestuous when it comes to Managers, constantly changing hands with little discernible success. But who are these riders of the Managers Merry-Go-Round?

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1) Bryan Robson. Although, quite rightly, credited with saving West Brom from the drop in 2005, Robson has never convinced as a top-flight Manager. After a series of successes with Middlesborough, a highly ambitious club after promotion to the Premier League in 1997, eventually relieved Robson of his post after struggling to lead them to higher than 9th position in the table. Bradford City came calling and appointed Robson to save them from the drop from Division 1, which, even after taking 22 points from 27 games, he failed to do so and was subsequently sacked. Returning to the top flight with West Brom, he steered the club to safety on the final day of the Premier League season with a 2-0 win over Pompey, however the following year after a series of dreadful results, Robson was once again sacked after relegating the club back to the Championship.
The final nail in the coffin of Robson's career came with Sheffield United. Appointed in May 2007, Robson would eventually be sacked after a string of poor results and uninspiring displays, with massive pressure to quit, he was put out of his misery in February 2008 and eventually left to become an Ambassador for Manchester United.

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2) Iain Dowie. Described once as the "most ugly man in football", Dowie has also had a rather petulant Managerial career. Beginning at Oldham Athletic, Dowie lead the club into the play-offs after spending heavily on new talent. However, financial trouble subsequently meant Dowie could no longer continue and left for "family reasons".
Then, in 2003, Dowie took the helm at Crystal Palace, the 19th placed Division 1 club in dire straights. After implementing a tough and disciplined regime and spending on new players, Dowie secured promotion to the Premier League after a 1-0 win over West Ham. However, the hang-over continued into next season, as the club suffered relegation back from whence they came. After losing to Watford in the following seasons Play-Offs, Dowie contentiously jumped ship to Charlton, much to Simon Jordan's dismay. However, Jordan's fury was short lived as Dowie, after a horrific 15 games in charge, left Charlton in November 2006.
Then, with additional unsuccessful spells at Coventry, Queens Park Rangers, Newcastle United and eventually Hull in 2010, Dowie became a Sky Sports pundit. As the phrase goes; "Those who can't Manage, join Sky Sports".

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3) Gary Megson. After notional spells at Norwich City, Blackpool, Stockport County and Stoke City, all with rather poor ends to each spell, Megson is most remembered for his stint at West Brom (them again!).
Megson took over in March 2000, and after securing safety for the club in the First Division, lead the club to the play-offs, while picking up a November Manager of the Month award, but unfortunately lost out to Bolton Wanderers. However, the following season brought glory to the West-Midlanders after overcoming an 11 point deficit to Wolverhampton Wanderers and securing promotion to the Premier League and Megson a Manager of the Year award.
After a public falling out with then chairman Paul Thompson during the 2001-2002 Season, Megson suffered relegation back to the Championship in 2003 after one season in the Premier League. After a further promotion in 2004, Megson eventually resigned after falling out with Thompson and a string of poor results in October 2004.
In January 2005, Megson took over at Nottingham Forest, however his reign would end after further relegation and a poor subsequent season after a target to reach the Championship eluded him. Megson eventually resigned and was reported to have said his spell in Nottingham cost him c£500k.
After a brief 41 days at the wheel in Leicester, Megson joined Bolton in October 2007. After a poor to intermittent season, Megson finally saved a club from relegation after a desperate 1-1 against Chelsea on the final day of the Season. The 2009 campaign began with almost 50 days without a win which resulted in Megson losing his job in December 2009.

While Robson, Dowie and Megson are my favourite examples of Managerial flops, despite intermittent achievement, it remains that many top-flight clubs choose the same faces with the same consequences. Why is this? Many news reports cite the "vast experience" of these men as a benefit to turning a club around. Other reasons could be that these were the only men available, the cheapest candidates or simply that a desperate appointment was needed.

Despite my rather scathing evaluation of these three Managers careers, I do profess that it is the somewhat unrealistic targets set by their respective employers which put their achievements into context, thus it is unfair to ask an individual to take their club to the Champions League places in 2 years if their previous positions have been mid-tier and with little funds to achieve the aim. In the end it is the Manager who is made scapegoat while the Board avoid the blame.

Therefore, I believe we are destined to continue this roundabout of failed marriages between Manager and Club, as there will always be a club to save or an unrealistic Board to serve. I have always maintained that a Managers job is extremely tough, due to the heavy expectation set my Fans and their Boards and with the growing gulf in financial prowess between the Sky Four and the chasing pack. Perhaps if we could have a situation were we could sack the board we would have less Managerial flops and more stable clubs? But then Turkeys have never voted for Christmas and they won't start now.