Manchester United - 4th.
Despite ruling the modern game by lifting 11 Premier League titles, amongst other trophies including the FA Cup, Champions League, League Cup and Charity Shields, Man Utd have begun to show a fragility which I feel will become a major problem in coming seasons. Being an Arsenal fan, I cannot compare the two in terms of trophy haul, however even the most die-hard United fan must be a little worried over the current financial state of their club. Whereas most clubs consider the financials as a footnote to their respective seasons, sooner or later the liquidity of the business comes to the fore and can cause terminal problems in their ability to compete for the riches of English football.
Recent reports from the City outline the potential for the £128m Bank loans interest in Man Utd to increase to a staggering £660m due to the maturity of a PIK instrument. To those unfamiliar with financial terms, it basically means the Glaziers have not been paying interest in these loans and instead wait until the loan has finished then pay back capital plus interest which has rolled up over the term of the facility. Couple this with the c£800m of debt used to purchase the club you have a staggering sum close to £1bn of debt requiring payment. While I do not profess to be a financial expert in terms of football finance, the high-level view of the Clubs indebtedness is far to big to sustain a transfer war-chest to compete with Chelsea or, more recently, Man City.
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Moreover the recent failure to mount a serious bid by the Red Knights this year to buy out the club suggest this group of City financiers saw a lot more than they bargained for after 5 years under Malcolm Glaziers hand.
How long can this last? My guess is that Man Utd will continue to mount a strong challenge. That said, with a front line reliant on Wayne Rooney and a defense on Vidic and Ferdinand it seems this squad, when missing first team regulars, may struggle in the latter stages of the Premier League and Champions League. After Ronaldo and Tevez's departure, Man Utd look light up front and may find with injuries, their ability to rake in points is diminished, I reference the previous 2-2 draw with Fulham to highlight their lack of strength. However, despite this, Ferguson has made signings this summer, including; Chris Smalling and Javier Hernandez - already impressing this season, while the elder members of the squad, Giggs and Scholes, have continued to defy their age with strong performances.
Therefore, with an aging squad and tightening purse strings, I feel Ferguson will be unable to guide his team no higher than 4th, as I feel my next contenders will be too strong and have more consistent seasons for the Red Devils to cope with.
Manchester City - 3rd.
A slightly uninspiring choice, Man City seem to be building a strong squad of internationals, albeit with the vast oil-rich Arab owners petty cash. I have never been a supporter to Sugar-Daddy backed success, as it paints an artificial gloss on a Clubs Season should they haul in the trophies.
While Roberto Mancini will always be working with an axe hanging above his head, metaphorically I hope, he has assembled a squad with plenty of talent in each position. Much like Chelsea under Mourinho, each area of the pitch is covered by at least two talented players. To name a few, any squad which boasts; Yaya Toure, Carlos Tevez, Nigel de Jong, Joe Hart, Wayne Bridge, Gareth Barry and, recently, James Milner, has a shot at the Premier League and the supporting Cup competitions. How Mancini slakes the desire of these players to have regular starting berths remains to be seen, however I suspect the cash will keep them happy for a while.
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As with Man Utd, the big spending at City will ultimately catch up with them, spending c£125m this summer so far with no sign of slowing down. Any finance expert will tell you that a club must keep wages to turnover ratios around the 70% mark, as deemed acceptable by FIFA, however I would guess without looking at the financial accounts that City are well in excess of this already, a case in point is Yaya Toure's moronic £200k per week contract.
Despite this, flashing cash is a hit or miss strategy unless you have a quality Manager in charge with the confidence of the Board. Chelsea managed it as Mourinho, while no shrinking violet, was indeed a successful Manager. Mancini won 140 of 227 games in charge at Internazionale, lifting the Serie A title 3 times, the Coppa Italia twice and the Supercoppa Italiana in 2006 so he does have some managerial pedigree. In addition, Massimo Moratti's generosity with the clubs coffers has enabled Mancini to buy big and achieve big results. Therefore, now Mancini has jumped to an equally spend happy club, circumstances suggest he will repeat this feat.
As a non-believer in purchasing success and a team yet to gel, I believe the blue half of Manchester will decimate the lesser lights of the Premier League and secure 3rd place, at least this season.
Chelsea - 2nd.
Despite being a power house in recent years, I believe Chelsea are heading more towards a crossroads in terms of the squad and their ability to challenge for the Premier League crown. Chelsea have won 3 Premiership Titles, 3 FA Cups and 2 League Cups between 2004-2010, which means the club have had a very successful 6 years, which is more than can be said for Arsenal. In addition, with the likes of Joe Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti (I will ignore "Big" Phil Scolari and Gus Hiddinks contribution) establishing strong squads who beat all before them, it may sound strange that I tip Chelsea for 2nd this year.
However, there are two key issues which will ultimately catch up with the Blues of West London; Squad age and Transfer Budgets.
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As discussed, ploughing millions into a squad does (sometimes) ensure short term success. Like Man City, see above, have done, many decent players have been showered with money in the hope that the stellar squads deliver on the pitch. However, this strategy is always a short term one. Jose Mourinho cannot say he is the "Special One" if his haul of trophies have been secured with unnatural sums of money at the expense of youth development (are you reading Mancini?) as any kid who's cheated at Championship Manager knows you have to use the resources you have to succeed which have been naturally generated by the club, not pumped in by a Billionaire owner as this is not sustainable.
Roman Abramovich continues to spend his millions, however there has been a distinct slow-down in recent years as, for example, winning bonuses have been scrapped due to the already high sums earned by his players have dramatically inflated the wage bill already. Additionally, the amount of players coming into the squad has also slowed down since the days of Ranieri and Mourinho. Many Chelsea fans may have the false hope that as and when a player is required, Roman will open the cheque book. However, if the wildly foolish Peter Kenyon is to be believed, Chelsea will be self sufficient in a few years while the FIFA fair play rules will force clubs to spend what they generate. Therefore, the riches will surely be restrianed and the Club will have to rely on business revenue to strengthen the club.
This summer, notable transfers in were both Ramires and Benayoun, while in Summer 2009, Chelsea signed Zhirkov, Sturridge and Nemanja Matic - a drastic turnaround from the ever-revolving door of the Ranieri and Mourinho years. While this is in keeping with the steady transfer policies of most clubs, Chelsea's squad have 6 players of 30 years old to replace at some point, all are regular starters. The likes of Lampard (32), Terry (29), Benayoun (30), Drogba (32) and Anelka (31) are all approaching an age where their performances will drastically begin to lose the spark of yesteryear and wont be as potent as the season continues. I may be being a little harsh and predicting a doomsday for the Chelsea squad, however how will these players cope with younger and faster opposition?
To this regard, I feel that with mounting debt and tightening purse strings (as with Man Utd) and an aging squad, Chelsea may fall a little short this year. After all, a club of Chelsea's ability will be competing on 4 fronts, how long is this sustainable with a first team of "senior" players with no realistic sight of immediate replacement
Arsenal - 1st.
This may come as no surprise. However, this will be the year Arsene delivers and the previously "developing team" will show their class and pip their West London rivals to the Title. Why am I so confident? A number of reasons.
Many Gooners are sick of hearing that the team is still developing. In my mind, they stopped developing 2 years ago and have been underachieving ever since. With new additions over the previous seasons such as Vermealen, Koscielny, Arshavin and recently, Chamakh, Wenger has otherwise built the team across a group of youngsters such as Gibbs, Denilson, Walcott, Vela, Bendtner, Traore and Alex Song. This points towards a team, such as the Man Utd of the 90's, who learn, lose, win and play together who have also been complimented with developed stars to add experience and steel.
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While the much publicised issues in the central defence and goalkeeper positions has dogged Arsenal, these are being addressed. The attacking options have never been a problem, with Arsenal firing in 83 goals in the Premier League alone. Emerging stars such as Walcott, Gibbs, Wilshere and Vela are finally showing their class and the mercurial Fabregas is the heartbeat of the first team - an unqualified talent, for how long we shall see.
The finance side of the club is also much publicised. Arsenal have the template for the perfect business franchise. Much admired amongst English and European clubs, the Gunners generate c£220m a year and are rapidly paying down the debt on the Emirates, for 2008/2009, c£130m was paid off over a financial year. In addition, while it will remain top secret, Wenger has millions at his disposal and chooses to not spend it, reinforcing his belief in talent and appropriately priced transfers. Finally, Arsenal consistently qualify for the Champions League, worth an extra £50m in revenues which is not only good for the coffers, but makes Arsenal an attractive club to join for a young starlet who wants to play regular football.
The issues this year will be with the fitness of Van Persie, Fabregas and Vermealen - the spine of the team. While Almunia remains as first choice, Arsenal will continue to fall short so the impending arrival of Mark Schwartzer will solve this problem. Finally, the emergence of Walcott, after being saved the embarrassment of this World Cup, and Wilshere (the new Fabregas?) will add style and youthful exuberance to the squad.
Most importantly, Wenger has finally silenced the doubters and put pen to paper on a new deal for a further 4 years. While this wont be a surprise to most, this actually means the club are now wholly unified as a team and business. This is key for a club looking to win competitions as if the players know their manager is to stay, it creates a solid team ethic and spirit. With a gelled team of youngsters desperate to prove their worth and with experienced internationals thrown into the mix, I feel this team will reflect the class of the Man Utd of the 90's and Barcelona of...well now.
Therefore, I believe this is the year Arsenal finally disprove their doubters and secure their first trophy in 5 years, so long as key players remain fit and firing.
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