Who will win the Premier League?

Now the new 2010/11 Season is underway, I thought I would assess the would be contenders and where I think they will finish come the end of their campaign. Eagle eyed readers may notice I have arrived pretty late to the Speculators Party, however it is always beneficial to see how the respective teams kick off their fixture lists and, as is always the case, no winner can be truly declared this side of Christmas.


Manchester United - 4th.

Despite ruling the modern game by lifting 11 Premier League titles, amongst other trophies including the FA Cup, Champions League, League Cup and Charity Shields, Man Utd have begun to show a fragility which I feel will become a major problem in coming seasons. Being an Arsenal fan, I cannot compare the two in terms of trophy haul, however even the most die-hard United fan must be a little worried over the current financial state of their club. Whereas most clubs consider the financials as a footnote to their respective seasons, sooner or later the liquidity of the business comes to the fore and can cause terminal problems in their ability to compete for the riches of English football.

Recent reports from the City outline the potential for the £128m Bank loans interest in Man Utd to increase to a staggering £660m due to the maturity of a PIK instrument. To those unfamiliar with financial terms, it basically means the Glaziers have not been paying interest in these loans and instead wait until the loan has finished then pay back capital plus interest which has rolled up over the term of the facility. Couple this with the c£800m of debt used to purchase the club you have a staggering sum close to £1bn of debt requiring payment. While I do not profess to be a financial expert in terms of football finance, the high-level view of the Clubs indebtedness is far to big to sustain a transfer war-chest to compete with Chelsea or, more recently, Man City.


Photo courtesy of www.dailymail.co.uk

Moreover the recent failure to mount a serious bid by the Red Knights this year to buy out the club suggest this group of City financiers saw a lot more than they bargained for after 5 years under Malcolm Glaziers hand.

How long can this last? My guess is that Man Utd will continue to mount a strong challenge. That said, with a front line reliant on Wayne Rooney and a defense on Vidic and Ferdinand it seems this squad, when missing first team regulars, may struggle in the latter stages of the Premier League and Champions League. After Ronaldo and Tevez's departure, Man Utd look light up front and may find with injuries, their ability to rake in points is diminished, I reference the previous 2-2 draw with Fulham to highlight their lack of strength. However, despite this, Ferguson has made signings this summer, including; Chris Smalling and Javier Hernandez - already impressing this season, while the elder members of the squad, Giggs and Scholes, have continued to defy their age with strong performances.

Therefore, with an aging squad and tightening purse strings, I feel Ferguson will be unable to guide his team no higher than 4th, as I feel my next contenders will be too strong and have more consistent seasons for the Red Devils to cope with.


Manchester City - 3rd.

A slightly uninspiring choice, Man City seem to be building a strong squad of internationals, albeit with the vast oil-rich Arab owners petty cash. I have never been a supporter to Sugar-Daddy backed success, as it paints an artificial gloss on a Clubs Season should they haul in the trophies.

While Roberto Mancini will always be working with an axe hanging above his head, metaphorically I hope, he has assembled a squad with plenty of talent in each position. Much like Chelsea under Mourinho, each area of the pitch is covered by at least two talented players. To name a few, any squad which boasts; Yaya Toure, Carlos Tevez, Nigel de Jong, Joe Hart, Wayne Bridge, Gareth Barry and, recently, James Milner, has a shot at the Premier League and the supporting Cup competitions. How Mancini slakes the desire of these players to have regular starting berths remains to be seen, however I suspect the cash will keep them happy for a while.


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As with Man Utd, the big spending at City will ultimately catch up with them, spending c£125m this summer so far with no sign of slowing down. Any finance expert will tell you that a club must keep wages to turnover ratios around the 70% mark, as deemed acceptable by FIFA, however I would guess without looking at the financial accounts that City are well in excess of this already, a case in point is Yaya Toure's moronic £200k per week contract.

Despite this, flashing cash is a hit or miss strategy unless you have a quality Manager in charge with the confidence of the Board. Chelsea managed it as Mourinho, while no shrinking violet, was indeed a successful Manager. Mancini won 140 of 227 games in charge at Internazionale, lifting the Serie A title 3 times, the Coppa Italia twice and the Supercoppa Italiana in 2006 so he does have some managerial pedigree. In addition, Massimo Moratti's generosity with the clubs coffers has enabled Mancini to buy big and achieve big results. Therefore, now Mancini has jumped to an equally spend happy club, circumstances suggest he will repeat this feat.

As a non-believer in purchasing success and a team yet to gel, I believe the blue half of Manchester will decimate the lesser lights of the Premier League and secure 3rd place, at least this season.


Chelsea - 2nd.

Despite being a power house in recent years, I believe Chelsea are heading more towards a crossroads in terms of the squad and their ability to challenge for the Premier League crown. Chelsea have won 3 Premiership Titles, 3 FA Cups and 2 League Cups between 2004-2010, which means the club have had a very successful 6 years, which is more than can be said for Arsenal. In addition, with the likes of Joe Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti (I will ignore "Big" Phil Scolari and Gus Hiddinks contribution) establishing strong squads who beat all before them, it may sound strange that I tip Chelsea for 2nd this year.

However, there are two key issues which will ultimately catch up with the Blues of West London; Squad age and Transfer Budgets.


Photo courtesy of www.wolvesblog.co.uk

As discussed, ploughing millions into a squad does (sometimes) ensure short term success. Like Man City, see above, have done, many decent players have been showered with money in the hope that the stellar squads deliver on the pitch. However, this strategy is always a short term one. Jose Mourinho cannot say he is the "Special One" if his haul of trophies have been secured with unnatural sums of money at the expense of youth development (are you reading Mancini?) as any kid who's cheated at Championship Manager knows you have to use the resources you have to succeed which have been naturally generated by the club, not pumped in by a Billionaire owner as this is not sustainable.

Roman Abramovich continues to spend his millions, however there has been a distinct slow-down in recent years as, for example, winning bonuses have been scrapped due to the already high sums earned by his players have dramatically inflated the wage bill already. Additionally, the amount of players coming into the squad has also slowed down since the days of Ranieri and Mourinho. Many Chelsea fans may have the false hope that as and when a player is required, Roman will open the cheque book. However, if the wildly foolish Peter Kenyon is to be believed, Chelsea will be self sufficient in a few years while the FIFA fair play rules will force clubs to spend what they generate. Therefore, the riches will surely be restrianed and the Club will have to rely on business revenue to strengthen the club.

This summer, notable transfers in were both Ramires and Benayoun, while in Summer 2009, Chelsea signed Zhirkov, Sturridge and Nemanja Matic - a drastic turnaround from the ever-revolving door of the Ranieri and Mourinho years. While this is in keeping with the steady transfer policies of most clubs, Chelsea's squad have 6 players of 30 years old to replace at some point, all are regular starters. The likes of Lampard (32), Terry (29), Benayoun (30), Drogba (32) and Anelka (31) are all approaching an age where their performances will drastically begin to lose the spark of yesteryear and wont be as potent as the season continues. I may be being a little harsh and predicting a doomsday for the Chelsea squad, however how will these players cope with younger and faster opposition?

To this regard, I feel that with mounting debt and tightening purse strings (as with Man Utd) and an aging squad, Chelsea may fall a little short this year. After all, a club of Chelsea's ability will be competing on 4 fronts, how long is this sustainable with a first team of "senior" players with no realistic sight of immediate replacement


Arsenal - 1st.

This may come as no surprise. However, this will be the year Arsene delivers and the previously "developing team" will show their class and pip their West London rivals to the Title. Why am I so confident? A number of reasons.

Many Gooners are sick of hearing that the team is still developing. In my mind, they stopped developing 2 years ago and have been underachieving ever since. With new additions over the previous seasons such as Vermealen, Koscielny, Arshavin and recently, Chamakh, Wenger has otherwise built the team across a group of youngsters such as Gibbs, Denilson, Walcott, Vela, Bendtner, Traore and Alex Song. This points towards a team, such as the Man Utd of the 90's, who learn, lose, win and play together who have also been complimented with developed stars to add experience and steel.


Photo courtesy of www.spurs.footballing.co.uk

While the much publicised issues in the central defence and goalkeeper positions has dogged Arsenal, these are being addressed. The attacking options have never been a problem, with Arsenal firing in 83 goals in the Premier League alone. Emerging stars such as Walcott, Gibbs, Wilshere and Vela are finally showing their class and the mercurial Fabregas is the heartbeat of the first team - an unqualified talent, for how long we shall see.

The finance side of the club is also much publicised. Arsenal have the template for the perfect business franchise. Much admired amongst English and European clubs, the Gunners generate c£220m a year and are rapidly paying down the debt on the Emirates, for 2008/2009, c£130m was paid off over a financial year. In addition, while it will remain top secret, Wenger has millions at his disposal and chooses to not spend it, reinforcing his belief in talent and appropriately priced transfers. Finally, Arsenal consistently qualify for the Champions League, worth an extra £50m in revenues which is not only good for the coffers, but makes Arsenal an attractive club to join for a young starlet who wants to play regular football.

The issues this year will be with the fitness of Van Persie, Fabregas and Vermealen - the spine of the team. While Almunia remains as first choice, Arsenal will continue to fall short so the impending arrival of Mark Schwartzer will solve this problem. Finally, the emergence of Walcott, after being saved the embarrassment of this World Cup, and Wilshere (the new Fabregas?) will add style and youthful exuberance to the squad.

Most importantly, Wenger has finally silenced the doubters and put pen to paper on a new deal for a further 4 years. While this wont be a surprise to most, this actually means the club are now wholly unified as a team and business. This is key for a club looking to win competitions as if the players know their manager is to stay, it creates a solid team ethic and spirit. With a gelled team of youngsters desperate to prove their worth and with experienced internationals thrown into the mix, I feel this team will reflect the class of the Man Utd of the 90's and Barcelona of...well now.

Therefore, I believe this is the year Arsenal finally disprove their doubters and secure their first trophy in 5 years, so long as key players remain fit and firing.

Will England ever win the World Cup?

In the past week, Emile Heskey has announced his retirement from International Football. Despite a much criticised figure bowing out to a flurry of jokes surrounding his "prolific" career with the national side, does Heskey truly deserve it?

I for one did believe the fact Heskey started in most England games laughable, the fact there could be no footballing reason to why he should play ahead of Crouch or Defoe bewildered me. During the tournament, tactical reasons such as; "Heskey allows Rooney to score more goals" or "he's the target man" sounded plausable, however Rooney didn't score any goals and Heskey barely provided. In fact, the best skill he performed was a touch in the Germany game which was a mere fumble and a shocking waste of a one-on-one against our American cousins.

However, the caveat to these observations is that Heskey didn't pick himself, Cappello did - and McLaren and Eriksson before him. Therefore, despite barely playing for Aston Villa or indeed scoring any goals in the Premier League, he was chosen. The issue here is that there is an undercurrent of fear in the England camp which is inherited like some genetic impairment preventing England managers choosing young talent and opting for the reliable player - even though they lack serious talent (you can hardly call Heskey "World-Class"?).

As discussed in an earlier post, many teams are indeed developing their youth academies, Arsenal for one. However, while our young up-and-comers are winning caps and games in the U17 and U21 tournaments, they find a glass ceiling between them and the main team, which is much to the detriment of their progression and the ability of England to win major trophies. An example is the German side who, despite crashing out to a superb Spanish team, promoted Thomas Muller, Marko Marin, Toni Kroos, the excellent Mesut Ozil, Jerome Boateng and Holger Badstuber - this was the team who humbled England 4-1.


Photo courtesy of www.worldcup2010mania.com

So if other Nations can do this, why can't England?

Take another example, Spain had the following players in their squad; Pedro Rodriguez, Javi Martinez, Sergio Busquets, Juan Manuel Mata and Cesc Fabregas, these are all players of between 21 to 23 years old. Despite having a relatively mature defensive back four, the Spanish have youth to rely on which, unlike England, they play and utilise to win matches. Therefore, while young players lack international experience, they are used for their pace, strength and no-fear attitude which can often surprise and intimidate any opponent. Any neutral watching Germany couldn't have helped to be impressed with how Ozil and Muller commanded the midfield and crafted many assists and attempts to help the Germans crush many teams by a four goal margin, while the Spanish (despite being a little goal shy by their high standards) controlled games and provided excellent examples of their passing game to the World.

So what is England's problem with fielding emerging talent? As a fellow football fan and non-professional, I could say it would be a combination of fear, lack of belief, spend-happy Chairmen and the expectation which England are put under (by the English and on one else) to win tournaments. After all, a surprising fact that came out of the World Cup 2010 was that both Spain and Holland had never won the trophy of trophies, and these teams are light-years ahead of England in ability. However, despite always being nearly-men or non-runners (McLaren anyone?) we have always placed a massive amount of pressure, branded "England Expects" on these players, which if your dealing with the likes of Lampard and Gerrard, make them fold like leaves in a gale.

England managers don't believe in youth and fear it. Despite paying much lip-service to young players and the media, Walcott was never used in Germany 2006 (perhaps too young, but the pace was indeed a rare asset) or (in 2010) Johnson, Walcott, Agbonlahor, Banes, Huddlestone (or "Manystone" depending on your allegiance) and Bent weren't utilised. In addition, Bent has been one of the most prolific English strikers in the Premier League - so why didn't he play? The answers to these questions will allude as all, as we don't know what the FA or England manager thinks when deciding their preliminary squads. The cynic inside me believes commercial deals struck pre-tournament have a bearing on who gets on the plane, however I wouldn't like to think that's true.


Picture courtesy of www.zimbio.com

Youth are the wild-cards, the unpredictable entities in a squad. It seems a player who is consistently awful is chosen over an unpredictable youth as you always get the same sub-standard performance. However, Walcott pretty much saved Arsenal's Champions League campaign last year and scored important goals to propel the Gunners to 3rd spot, demonstrating a belief in youth pretty much always pays off. However, I don't want to sound blinkered so other examples include; Everton with Jack Rodwell and Dan Gosling - now hot properties after helping to surgically unpick Man Utd's defence. Aston Villa with Gabby Agbonlahor and Ashley Young - also targets for bigger clubs. Finally, dare I say it, Tottenham Hotspur have almost 17 British players, including the superb Danny Rose, who could all feature for England and Wales in upcoming tournaments. The trend, you may have noticed, is that there are non from the traditional Sky Four. However, while I would like to say a word for the others, Arsenal have 6 young English players emerging who could one day represent at International level.

All these young players have shown their ability and have subsequently come under the gaze of Chairmen like the repulsive Garry Cook at Man City. Here we have a middle manager, a Phil Brown, who's head has expanded with Man City's bank balances. Willfully throwing money at other clubs, he has been nicknamed "Santa Claus" as he is the man to secure your club's financial future if you have an overpriced diamond to sell. Others including Hicks & Gillett (formerly Rick Parry) and David Gill have bankrupted their clubs chasing expensive foreign players to buy success and have succeeded at heavy prices, time will tell if Liverpool and Man Utd can be fully self sufficient clubs.
Chairmen at wealthy clubs need to stop buying overpriced talent and focus more on youth development, trusting the youngsters who emerge in their Academies (providing they have Academies in the first place) and play them, regularly. Cook and Man City have spent almost c£300m on players to date and very few have been English players. Whether this can possibly continue is another matter, however it highlights the shocking ability to spend gross sums of money and not on individuals who are of the same nationality as the country in which they play.

It is my belief that the England team needs a major overhaul, and not the changes McLaren made and subsequently un-made during his black days in charge. Players such as Lampard, Green, Terry, Lennon, Upson, Carragher and Barry need to be dropped like stones as they are either lack the ability to play at an international level, are weak in temperament or, like Terry, are selfish and think only of themselves. Despite players declaring their love and pride in pulling on the England shirt, they rarely prove it and frankly should not be paid for the highest service you can provide in your profession. In addition, can you really call players like these World Class if they never perform at that level? For me its like labelling a 100 meter sprinter as an Olympian when they have never been to a Games in their career - perhaps I am being a little literal there.

In order for England to challenge again, I believe they need to follow these steps in order to mount a realistic challenge in 2012 or 2014;
1) Drop the aforementioned players.
2) Promote and replace these players with those from the U21's to add more youthful and able players. Scout the Championship for squad players who are used to physical football.
3) Develop the Burton Youth Academy.
4) The FA need to ensure the awesome spending of rich clubs is curtailed to ensure they are self-sufficient and look to their own Academies and reserve sides to bring players to the fore.
5) Play better teams in friendlies, we will never beat the likes of Spain. France or Germany if we never play them.

The England managers job is a tough job and I am not pretending that I can do better. However, as an observer and football fan, it is plain to see changes are needed. It is frankly embarrassing when an International Tournament comes around and our players fail to perform and fail to live up to their hype and reputations. Perhaps what I have written is a little Utopian and it can all be fixed in a moment, however, as the saying goes, we must put our money were our mouths are and start proving we are a World Class team, instead of talking the talk and taking the eventual walk.