Who will win the Premier League?

Now the new 2010/11 Season is underway, I thought I would assess the would be contenders and where I think they will finish come the end of their campaign. Eagle eyed readers may notice I have arrived pretty late to the Speculators Party, however it is always beneficial to see how the respective teams kick off their fixture lists and, as is always the case, no winner can be truly declared this side of Christmas.


Manchester United - 4th.

Despite ruling the modern game by lifting 11 Premier League titles, amongst other trophies including the FA Cup, Champions League, League Cup and Charity Shields, Man Utd have begun to show a fragility which I feel will become a major problem in coming seasons. Being an Arsenal fan, I cannot compare the two in terms of trophy haul, however even the most die-hard United fan must be a little worried over the current financial state of their club. Whereas most clubs consider the financials as a footnote to their respective seasons, sooner or later the liquidity of the business comes to the fore and can cause terminal problems in their ability to compete for the riches of English football.

Recent reports from the City outline the potential for the £128m Bank loans interest in Man Utd to increase to a staggering £660m due to the maturity of a PIK instrument. To those unfamiliar with financial terms, it basically means the Glaziers have not been paying interest in these loans and instead wait until the loan has finished then pay back capital plus interest which has rolled up over the term of the facility. Couple this with the c£800m of debt used to purchase the club you have a staggering sum close to £1bn of debt requiring payment. While I do not profess to be a financial expert in terms of football finance, the high-level view of the Clubs indebtedness is far to big to sustain a transfer war-chest to compete with Chelsea or, more recently, Man City.


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Moreover the recent failure to mount a serious bid by the Red Knights this year to buy out the club suggest this group of City financiers saw a lot more than they bargained for after 5 years under Malcolm Glaziers hand.

How long can this last? My guess is that Man Utd will continue to mount a strong challenge. That said, with a front line reliant on Wayne Rooney and a defense on Vidic and Ferdinand it seems this squad, when missing first team regulars, may struggle in the latter stages of the Premier League and Champions League. After Ronaldo and Tevez's departure, Man Utd look light up front and may find with injuries, their ability to rake in points is diminished, I reference the previous 2-2 draw with Fulham to highlight their lack of strength. However, despite this, Ferguson has made signings this summer, including; Chris Smalling and Javier Hernandez - already impressing this season, while the elder members of the squad, Giggs and Scholes, have continued to defy their age with strong performances.

Therefore, with an aging squad and tightening purse strings, I feel Ferguson will be unable to guide his team no higher than 4th, as I feel my next contenders will be too strong and have more consistent seasons for the Red Devils to cope with.


Manchester City - 3rd.

A slightly uninspiring choice, Man City seem to be building a strong squad of internationals, albeit with the vast oil-rich Arab owners petty cash. I have never been a supporter to Sugar-Daddy backed success, as it paints an artificial gloss on a Clubs Season should they haul in the trophies.

While Roberto Mancini will always be working with an axe hanging above his head, metaphorically I hope, he has assembled a squad with plenty of talent in each position. Much like Chelsea under Mourinho, each area of the pitch is covered by at least two talented players. To name a few, any squad which boasts; Yaya Toure, Carlos Tevez, Nigel de Jong, Joe Hart, Wayne Bridge, Gareth Barry and, recently, James Milner, has a shot at the Premier League and the supporting Cup competitions. How Mancini slakes the desire of these players to have regular starting berths remains to be seen, however I suspect the cash will keep them happy for a while.


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As with Man Utd, the big spending at City will ultimately catch up with them, spending c£125m this summer so far with no sign of slowing down. Any finance expert will tell you that a club must keep wages to turnover ratios around the 70% mark, as deemed acceptable by FIFA, however I would guess without looking at the financial accounts that City are well in excess of this already, a case in point is Yaya Toure's moronic £200k per week contract.

Despite this, flashing cash is a hit or miss strategy unless you have a quality Manager in charge with the confidence of the Board. Chelsea managed it as Mourinho, while no shrinking violet, was indeed a successful Manager. Mancini won 140 of 227 games in charge at Internazionale, lifting the Serie A title 3 times, the Coppa Italia twice and the Supercoppa Italiana in 2006 so he does have some managerial pedigree. In addition, Massimo Moratti's generosity with the clubs coffers has enabled Mancini to buy big and achieve big results. Therefore, now Mancini has jumped to an equally spend happy club, circumstances suggest he will repeat this feat.

As a non-believer in purchasing success and a team yet to gel, I believe the blue half of Manchester will decimate the lesser lights of the Premier League and secure 3rd place, at least this season.


Chelsea - 2nd.

Despite being a power house in recent years, I believe Chelsea are heading more towards a crossroads in terms of the squad and their ability to challenge for the Premier League crown. Chelsea have won 3 Premiership Titles, 3 FA Cups and 2 League Cups between 2004-2010, which means the club have had a very successful 6 years, which is more than can be said for Arsenal. In addition, with the likes of Joe Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti (I will ignore "Big" Phil Scolari and Gus Hiddinks contribution) establishing strong squads who beat all before them, it may sound strange that I tip Chelsea for 2nd this year.

However, there are two key issues which will ultimately catch up with the Blues of West London; Squad age and Transfer Budgets.


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As discussed, ploughing millions into a squad does (sometimes) ensure short term success. Like Man City, see above, have done, many decent players have been showered with money in the hope that the stellar squads deliver on the pitch. However, this strategy is always a short term one. Jose Mourinho cannot say he is the "Special One" if his haul of trophies have been secured with unnatural sums of money at the expense of youth development (are you reading Mancini?) as any kid who's cheated at Championship Manager knows you have to use the resources you have to succeed which have been naturally generated by the club, not pumped in by a Billionaire owner as this is not sustainable.

Roman Abramovich continues to spend his millions, however there has been a distinct slow-down in recent years as, for example, winning bonuses have been scrapped due to the already high sums earned by his players have dramatically inflated the wage bill already. Additionally, the amount of players coming into the squad has also slowed down since the days of Ranieri and Mourinho. Many Chelsea fans may have the false hope that as and when a player is required, Roman will open the cheque book. However, if the wildly foolish Peter Kenyon is to be believed, Chelsea will be self sufficient in a few years while the FIFA fair play rules will force clubs to spend what they generate. Therefore, the riches will surely be restrianed and the Club will have to rely on business revenue to strengthen the club.

This summer, notable transfers in were both Ramires and Benayoun, while in Summer 2009, Chelsea signed Zhirkov, Sturridge and Nemanja Matic - a drastic turnaround from the ever-revolving door of the Ranieri and Mourinho years. While this is in keeping with the steady transfer policies of most clubs, Chelsea's squad have 6 players of 30 years old to replace at some point, all are regular starters. The likes of Lampard (32), Terry (29), Benayoun (30), Drogba (32) and Anelka (31) are all approaching an age where their performances will drastically begin to lose the spark of yesteryear and wont be as potent as the season continues. I may be being a little harsh and predicting a doomsday for the Chelsea squad, however how will these players cope with younger and faster opposition?

To this regard, I feel that with mounting debt and tightening purse strings (as with Man Utd) and an aging squad, Chelsea may fall a little short this year. After all, a club of Chelsea's ability will be competing on 4 fronts, how long is this sustainable with a first team of "senior" players with no realistic sight of immediate replacement


Arsenal - 1st.

This may come as no surprise. However, this will be the year Arsene delivers and the previously "developing team" will show their class and pip their West London rivals to the Title. Why am I so confident? A number of reasons.

Many Gooners are sick of hearing that the team is still developing. In my mind, they stopped developing 2 years ago and have been underachieving ever since. With new additions over the previous seasons such as Vermealen, Koscielny, Arshavin and recently, Chamakh, Wenger has otherwise built the team across a group of youngsters such as Gibbs, Denilson, Walcott, Vela, Bendtner, Traore and Alex Song. This points towards a team, such as the Man Utd of the 90's, who learn, lose, win and play together who have also been complimented with developed stars to add experience and steel.


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While the much publicised issues in the central defence and goalkeeper positions has dogged Arsenal, these are being addressed. The attacking options have never been a problem, with Arsenal firing in 83 goals in the Premier League alone. Emerging stars such as Walcott, Gibbs, Wilshere and Vela are finally showing their class and the mercurial Fabregas is the heartbeat of the first team - an unqualified talent, for how long we shall see.

The finance side of the club is also much publicised. Arsenal have the template for the perfect business franchise. Much admired amongst English and European clubs, the Gunners generate c£220m a year and are rapidly paying down the debt on the Emirates, for 2008/2009, c£130m was paid off over a financial year. In addition, while it will remain top secret, Wenger has millions at his disposal and chooses to not spend it, reinforcing his belief in talent and appropriately priced transfers. Finally, Arsenal consistently qualify for the Champions League, worth an extra £50m in revenues which is not only good for the coffers, but makes Arsenal an attractive club to join for a young starlet who wants to play regular football.

The issues this year will be with the fitness of Van Persie, Fabregas and Vermealen - the spine of the team. While Almunia remains as first choice, Arsenal will continue to fall short so the impending arrival of Mark Schwartzer will solve this problem. Finally, the emergence of Walcott, after being saved the embarrassment of this World Cup, and Wilshere (the new Fabregas?) will add style and youthful exuberance to the squad.

Most importantly, Wenger has finally silenced the doubters and put pen to paper on a new deal for a further 4 years. While this wont be a surprise to most, this actually means the club are now wholly unified as a team and business. This is key for a club looking to win competitions as if the players know their manager is to stay, it creates a solid team ethic and spirit. With a gelled team of youngsters desperate to prove their worth and with experienced internationals thrown into the mix, I feel this team will reflect the class of the Man Utd of the 90's and Barcelona of...well now.

Therefore, I believe this is the year Arsenal finally disprove their doubters and secure their first trophy in 5 years, so long as key players remain fit and firing.

Should he stay or should Cesc go?

Being an Arsenal fan, there are 3 things that we can set our watches by every year; (1) the “experts” writing us off pre-season before a ball is kicked, (2) Wenger stating that “this year is our year” (it will be at some point but…) and (3) Barcelona’s rather perverse pursuit of Cesc Fabregas.

Like an absent father who’s long-lost son has hit the big time and is now a famous (and wealthy) footballer, they are now suddenly interested in their former player who is now one of the most coveted midfield players in the modern game. It is known that Fabregas played in their youth team and has his routes in Catalonia, however, in footballing terms, Cesc was one of a number of outcasts from the great La Masia academy and, sporting a very 80’s haircut, came to Arsenal and blossomed into the maestro he is today. To rephrase, Arsenal made Cesc who he is.

Today (at time of writing), the ever distasteful (but arguably one of the best players around – Euro/World Champion) Xavi has stated Arsenal have Cesc “on loan” and he will return to Barca to continue his career. In addition, the Neanderthal Puyol has also stated that Arsenal are disrespecting Cesc and forcing him to stay. I may be wrong, and naïve, however there are such things as contracts in football and even though a Players ego may transcend the legal paper they sign when they desire a pay-rise, they must be respected and not thrown about like toys to a spoilt child.


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While I believe Cesc’s time at Arsenal is indeed short – with a potential move next year or the year after – when a Club wishes to acquire the services of another Clubs player, they must show respect and follow the regulations laid down by FIFA to purchase the player, who ever that player may be. It is fact that Barcelona are a great club, their trophy cabinet speaks for itself. Moreover, the Spanish are now World Champions, therefore Spain (or Barcelona) do command respect as the best in their profession. However, self indulgent arrogance simply shows that however great a player you are, you are judged as a man, an individual – think John Terry as a case in point. That follows as a Club, despite being the best in Europe, Barcelona must show they respect their fellow competitors and cant go around throwing cash and attitude at Clubs and demand their players, such arrogance damages the Clubs reputation and makes the vendor Club reluctant to sell.

However, instead of throwing our toys out the pram, it is easier to understand this saga if we break it down into constituent parts; Barcelona, Cesc and Arsenal.

Barcelona - As Barcelona elect presidents every 3-4 years, clubs like Arsenal are pulled into a circus of promises and innuendo when a prospective candidate, such as one Joan Laporta and (recently appointed) Sandro Rosell, are in the race to take the hot seat. Similar to our British Politics, a lot of big promises are made, many come to nothing. However, in recent years, Laporta has been aggressive in having the acquisition of Cesc as his crown jewel, “promising” his signature if he is re-elected.

Despite that claim being a kick in the teeth for Arsenal (and massively disrespectful), how can a club promise to sign a player without first discussing with the selling club? In addition, recent reports of Barcelona’s financial troubles show that not all is rosy in the rose garden. I will leave the financial analysis for better men, however when a Football Club takes out a c£130m bridging facility, it doesn’t look good. The lesson here is that despite your success and wealth, you must spend within your means, therefore the Catalans pursuit of Cesc’s signature is a matter of vanity and little else.

I am sure if I won the lottery, I would purchase 5 Omega Seamaster watches, however I can’t possibly wear them all, therefore I can acquire all the toys I want, but I can only use a few at a time, the same goes for Clubs buying players.

Cesc – As discussed, when Arsenal purchased Cesc for (reported) c£650k as a compensation fee, no-one had heard of his name and assumed it was another young star plucked from obscurity by Le Professor. With his mullet in tow, Cesc quickly began to stamp his reputation as a gifted and intelligent player, committed and passionate. By 19 years old, he had played more games than his colleagues at that age and was quickly installed at the key component in the Arsenal midfield. Like Henry before, Cesc had become indispensible.

Therefore the question is; would Cesc have become the player he is if he had stayed at Barcelona? I am sure he wouldn’t have. If we assume he stayed at La Masia, Cesc would have played a few games in the Barcelona B Team and gained a small reputation as being a good player in Spain. He may then, after a few years, been promoted to Barcelona first team and been benched for a few games. Then by his mid-20’s he may have become a great player, however all this would have taken time and he wouldn’t have made a similar impact on the footballing world.
I am aware that this is pure conjecture; however Barcelona let him leave as they obviously didn’t see the potential Wenger did. When a team is over-populated with midfielders, such as Barcelona’s squad, he wouldn’t have had a look-in.

Another case in point is Matthieu Flamini. A great player and a key part of the (somehow) great back 4 which took the Gunners to the Champions League Final in 2006, however he was a mercenary. After a much publicised exit from Marseille, in which manager Jose Anigo reportedly promised to “get him back”, he became a fringe player and a utility man. However, Flamini grew into a great player during that season and, unfortunately, realised it. Then, in an act of pure self indulgence, left for AC Milan for a c£5m contract claiming to be “an Arsenal fan” – as if that softens the blow for his departing supporters. However, he left for a team over populated with defensive midfielders, therefore in his Milan career he has only played 51 Seria A games (starts and sub appearances), 3 domestic cup games and a paltry 12 Champions League games. Benchwarmer he is.


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Arsenal – Since Wenger arrived in 1996, he has been building a team made of home-grown players and experience. While the recent incarnation of his dream is yet to bear fruit – and it will – he has relied on youth and a small transfer budget to keep Arsenal competitive. While the Emirates Stadium was under construction and now being repaid, Wenger has purchased the odd player to compliment the team and otherwise acquired youth players and promoted academy players. While the trophy cabinet is bare – this is a bigger achievement than most managers can boast. However, Wenger saw the potential in Cesc and took the gamble in allowing him to play. This is the reason why Cesc is Cesc, why he is a great player and coveted by teams in all countries.

The club itself has always maintained an air of silence around transfers, to protect the player and prevent other clubs gazumping them with overpriced offers and unrealistic wage demands. In stark contrast to Barcelona who have prostituted themselves around buying players such as Zlatan Ibrahimovic for €69m (?) and the unknown Alexandr Hleb for €17m – which either haven’t played or have been shipped off a season later. Anyone who has played Championship Manager knows that you can cheat and spend pots of money building a squad but it doesn’t guarantee success, the irony being that Barcelona have succeeded with talent grown from their academy and not really due to the players they have purchased.

However the key point is that when a player is purchased, they sign a contract. Cesc signed a contract to 2014 stating his commitment to the club and has demonstrated this on the field. He is intelligent and experienced and should know that, like in Spain’s victorious World Cup campaign; he will be a bit-part player, an Omega watch on the Barcelona bed-side table. He wont play as much as will be forced to play in a team of ego’s who only want Cesc for his talent and will drop him like a stone when they can. However, it remains to be seen if this comes to fruition.

So, should Cesc go? I think he should. When a player wishes to leave, a portion of their desire, commitment and indeed form goes with them. Think Henry and Ronaldo in their respective final seasons, they were a shadow of their former greatness and were just a bit-part in a good season. Although having a player like Cesc leave will be a blow in terms of his absence, he won’t be missed in footballing terms.
Luckily, the old adage that Clubs become less prolific when a great player leaves is nonsense. When Henry and Ronaldo left, it made no difference to the quality of Arsenal or Man Utd, Even when Van Nistelrooy left Man Utd; there was no difference to their quality and ability to win trophies or titles.

For Arsenal, if Cesc were to leave, it would leave a void happily filled by the talented Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshere and Denilson amongst others. In addition, when Cesc was absent during the 2009-2010 season through injury, he was barely missed. This is due to Wengers ability to adapt and change a squad around a player, if one is absent, another compensates. Therefore, despite being a loyal servant to Arsenal and being a great addition to the squad, if Cesc were to go, it would mean another c£40m in the Bank and the opportunity for a “future Cesc” to take over. However, I am sure we can use him for one final season before he drinks from the poison chalice in Spain….